TIFA Poll Shows Raila’s Absence Complicates Ruto’s 2027 Re-Election Path

A new opinion poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) suggests that the death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has made President William Ruto’s bid for a second term in 2027 more complex rather than easier, challenging long-standing assumptions in Kenya’s political discourse.

According to the survey released on December 23, 2025, 41 per cent of Kenyans believe Raila Odinga’s absence from the political scene complicates President Ruto’s re-election prospects. In contrast, 30 per cent say the absence could ease Ruto’s path to victory, while 18 per cent believe it makes no difference. A further 10 per cent of respondents remain undecided.

The findings reveal a sharply divided electorate and underscore Raila’s enduring influence on Kenya’s political balance. While he was President Ruto’s most prominent rival for decades, Raila also served as a central figure around whom political alliances, opposition strategies, and voter expectations were organised. His absence appears to have introduced uncertainty rather than clarity.

Beyond personalities, the poll points to a significant shift in voter priorities. Many respondents indicated that government performance will be the most decisive factor in determining Ruto’s fate in 2027, suggesting a growing focus on economic delivery, cost of living, and service provision over opposition dynamics. This shift signals a more issue-driven electorate that could reshape campaign strategies over the next two years.

The survey also highlights declining confidence in Kenya’s major political parties. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains the most popular party at 20 per cent, followed by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent. However, both parties have suffered steep declines since the August 2022 General Election, when ODM stood at 32 per cent and UDA at 38 per cent.

As support for the two dominant parties weakens, undecided voters have emerged as the single largest bloc, now accounting for 30 per cent of the electorate—double the proportion recorded in 2022. This surge reflects widespread voter uncertainty and a volatile political environment ahead of 2027.

Smaller parties continue to trail behind, with Jubilee Party at 11 per cent, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 6 per cent, Wiper at 4 per cent, and Ford-Kenya and DAP-Kenya each at 1 per cent.

The poll also suggests that half of Kenyans expect ODM to exit the Broad-Based Government and return to the opposition before 2027, highlighting expectations of further political realignment in the post-Raila era.

Overall, the TIFA survey paints a picture of an increasingly fluid and unpredictable political landscape, where voter loyalty is weakening, party dominance is fading, and President Ruto’s re-election prospects may depend more on performance than political calculations alone.